生态安全格局视角下的生态保护红线评估——以浙江省为例

为评估浙江省陆域生态保护红线科学性,本研究从生态安全格局视角出发,基于生态系统全过程的理念评价其生态效应。在明确生态保护红线三重内涵的基础上,构建评价指标体系,应用InVEST模型、净初级生产力定量分析等方法识别生态源地,评估红线斑块重要性;应用最小阻力值模型、重力模型等方法构建生态廊道体系,评估红线连通性;此外,通过景观格局指数、叠置分析等方法评估红线破碎化与协调性。结果表明: 从生态保护重要性看,浙江省生态保护红线保护规模较大,但13.5%的红线区保护重要性不高,省级生态源地中约40%的斑块未被纳入生态保护红线保护区。从空间结构整体性看,生态保护红线连通性不足,核心生态廊道占有率低于15%,部分县市红线斑块较为破碎。从系统间协调性看,生态保护红线跨行政区衔接性较好,但仍需注意平原地区因供需矛盾而导致的划定不实与破碎化现象。借鉴生态安全格局提出红线优化调整的相关策略,可为生态空间管理提供科学参考。     

基于生态安全格局的上海国土空间生态修复关键区域识别与修复策略

新时期国土空间生态修复被赋予维护区域生态安全、提升区域生态系统质量和稳定性、提供优质生态产品的重任。从生态安全角度准确判定国土空间待修复关键区域,是其首要事项,也是科学开展生态修复的关键和难题。本研究基于主流生态安全格局构建理论和方法,以上海市为研究区域,集成运用形态学空间格局分析方法和InVEST模型识别生态源地,利用电路理论提取生态廊道、生态“夹点”和障碍点,综合判定待修复关键区域,并提出针对性修复策略。结果表明: 上海市生态源地主要分布在长江入海口、崇明岛、杭州湾沿岸及淀山湖区域,约占研究区面积的17.9%;源间关键廊道共计103条;待修复关键区域包括12处生态“夹点”和54处生态障碍点,主要分布在生态源地与生态廊道接壤处以及生态廊道与生态廊道的交点或拐点处;根据待修复关键区域典型问题及其土地利用状况,提出生态景观重塑、重要廊道贯通和生态岸线保护修复3类修复策略分区及其可能的工程措施建议。本研究结果可为上海市编制国土空间生态修复规划,以及全国其他地区构建相近尺度生态安全格局、开展系统性生态修复工作提供参考。     

Factors involved in the degradation of mangrove forests in Iran: A mixed study for the management of this ecosystem

In Iran, mangroves are located in the south of the country, where they fulfill essential ecosystem functions, but some parts of them have been destroyed for various reasons in recent years so that it seems necessary to have a management plan consistent with the conservation of this ecosystem. But, it needs knowledge of the trend of and reasons for the degradation of these forests. So, the primary idea of this research was to discover the factors involved in the degradation of these forests and how to manage them. So, the research first used the remote sensing technique to determine the rate of their degradation over the last 20 years. Then, using the Delphi technique, 45 factors were identified for the degradation of these forests and they were classified into five categories including climatic and environmental, anthropogenic, socioeconomic, psychological, and policymaking and legal. Finally, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used to rank these factors within two management paradigms of remediability and preventability so that the ecosystem can be soundly managed by classifying these factors. Overall, the results can provide policymakers with new insights into forest management and the policies presented here can contribute to the sustainability of this ecosystem.     

总体国家安全观下合成生物学风险和应对策略研究*

合成生物学是近年来兴起的一门兼材料学、医学和信息学等学科特性的交叉学科,在促进医学进步和科技转化应用的同时,也在总体国家安全内涵中被赋予了特殊的重要地位。如何在新时期应对错综复杂的安全形势和严峻挑战,是世界各国和国际社会所面临的科技治理和生物安全的重要命题。重点介绍合成生物技术相关生物武器威胁、生物恐怖威胁、生物安全国际公约条例、生物安全伦理治理框架,总结近年来合成生物技术领域生物安全风险相关问题,提出合成生物学安全风险应对策略和国家总体安全观下科技发展建议。     

21世纪初农业生态系统健康研究方向

农业生态系统健康是指农业生态系统免受发生“失调综合症”,处理胁迫的状态和满足持续生产农产品的能力,目前,农业生态系统健康研究范围主要涉及农业生态系统健康评价方法,土壤质量和水质与农业生态系统健康的联系,农业生态系统健康与人类健康的关系,害虫生态管理对农业生态系统健康的贡献,杂草综合管理在农业生态系统健康中的作用,从生态病理学到农业生态系统健康,线虫群落作为农业生态系统健康指示生物的研究,转基因作物对农业生态系统健康的生态影响评价,农业投入政策对农业生态系统健康的影响,景观生态学在农业生态系统健康评价中的应用,农业生态系统健康与绿色食品开发等,首先论述了农业生态系统健康研究的现状,介绍了农业生态系统健康研究实例-土壤健康的生物指标,最后提出了今后农业生态系统健康的研究方向,为保障农产品安全和增进人类健康提供依据。     

河流沿线土地利用对策的研究

河流沿线土地是与河流、湖泊的生态学过程紧密相连,直接受洪水影响的沿河（湖）土地带,本文以生态学原理为指导,结合中国森林生态网络工程体系建设理论,对河流沿线土地安全和土地利用的原则、指导思想、理论依据及对策等问题进行了探讨,河流沿线土地安全包括土地的生态效闪安全、经济效益安全与社会效益安全3个方面,土地利用策略的原则是要确保三者的统一,找到三者的最佳结合部,土地利用的指导思想是要把治理与开发紧密结合起来,通过各种措施加强土地的安全建设,实行以增加林木比重为主的近自然的利用和管理对策,根据河流特征的地域分异来确定不同河流,不同河段的利用模式,并基于洪水干扰的风险等级和河流沿线土地的空间分异规律,诊为在河流沿线的纵向上,分别中下游不同河实施人为干扰程度不同的管理对策;横向上按照土地分异性和洪水安全性,分别弹性利用带、脆弱利用带和稳定利用带3条不同土地带采取不同的利用对策。     

A meta-analysis of elevated [CO2] effects on soybean (Glycine max) physiology, growth and yield

The effects of elevated [CO₂] on 25 variables describing soybean physiology, growth and yield are reviewed using meta‐analytic techniques. This is the first meta‐analysis to our knowledge performed on a single crop species and summarizes the effects of 111 studies. These primary studies include numerous soybean growth forms, various stress and experimental treatments, and a range of elevated [CO₂] levels (from 450 to 1250 p.p.m.), with a mean of 689 p.p.m. across all studies. Stimulation of soybean leaf CO₂ assimilation rate with growth at elevated [CO₂] was 39%, despite a 40% decrease in stomatal conductance and a 11% decrease in Rubisco activity. Increased leaf CO₂ uptake combined with an 18% stimulation in leaf area to provide a 59% increase in canopy photosynthetic rate. The increase in total dry weight was lower at 37%, and seed yield still lower at 24%. This shows that even in an agronomic species selected for maximum investment in seed, several plant level feedbacks prevent additional investment in reproduction, such that yield fails to reflect fully the increase in whole plant carbon uptake. Large soil containers (> 9 L) have been considered adequate for assessing plant responses to elevated [CO₂]. However, in open‐top chamber experiments, soybeans grown in large pots showed a significant threefold smaller stimulation in yield than soybeans grown in the ground. This suggests that conclusions about plant yield based on pot studies, even when using very large containers, are a poor reflection of performance in the absence of any physical restriction on root growth. This review supports a number of current paradigms of plant responses to elevated [CO₂]. Namely, stimulation of photosynthesis is greater in plants that fix N and have additional carbohydrate sinks in nodules. This supports the notion that photosynthetic capacity decreases when plants are N‐limited, but not when plants have adequate N and sink strength. The root : shoot ratio did not change with growth at elevated [CO₂], sustaining the charge that biomass allocation is unaffected by growth at elevated [CO₂] when plant size and ontogeny are considered.     

基于变权-物元分析模型的老工业基地区域生态安全动态预警研究——以吉林省为例

生态安全预警是生态安全研究的重要内容,对维护区域生态安全具有重要的意义。老工业基地区域生态安全预警研究具有一定的特殊性和典型性,选取吉林省为研究区,基于压力、状态、响应(P-S-R)和生态、环境、经济、社会(E-E-E-S)框架模型构建生态安全预警指标体系,运用变权-物元分析模型对1991—2011年吉林省区域生态安全的预警等级进行了测度,并结合灰色系统GM(1,1)预测模型对2015年、2020年区域生态安全态势进行预测预警。研究结果表明:(1)1991—2011年,吉林省生态安全总体水平呈逐步上升的趋势,区域生态安全预警等级从"巨警"上升为"轻警",指示灯由"红色预警"逐步变为"蓝色预警";(2)2015年,吉林省的生态安全预警等级属于"轻警",指示灯为"蓝色预警",到2020年,吉林省的生态安全预警等级属于"无警",指示灯为"绿色预警",但具有向"轻警"变化的态势;(3)制约吉林省生态安全水平提升的主要因素包括单位面积耕地化肥负荷量、城镇化、人均水资源量、GDP增长率、第一产业占GDP比重等,这些因素应是今后生态环境保护调控的重点,本研究为吉林省经济-生态-社会可持续发展提供参考。     

Co‐benefits,trade‐offs,barriers and policies for greenhouse gas mitigation in the agriculture,forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector

The agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector is responsible for approximately 25% of anthropogenic GHG emissions mainly from deforestation and agricultural emissions from livestock, soil and nutrient management. Mitigation from the sector is thus extremely important in meeting emission reduction targets. The sector offers a variety of cost‐competitive mitigation options with most analyses indicating a decline in emissions largely due to decreasing deforestation rates. Sustainability criteria are needed to guide development and implementation of AFOLU mitigation measures with particular focus on multifunctional systems that allow the delivery of multiple services from land. It is striking that almost all of the positive and negative impacts, opportunities and barriers are context specific, precluding generic statements about which AFOLU mitigation measures have the greatest promise at a global scale. This finding underlines the importance of considering each mitigation strategy on a case‐by‐case basis, systemic effects when implementing mitigation options on the national scale, and suggests that policies need to be flexible enough to allow such assessments. National and international agricultural and forest (climate) policies have the potential to alter the opportunity costs of specific land uses in ways that increase opportunities or barriers for attaining climate change mitigation goals. Policies governing practices in agriculture and in forest conservation and management need to account for both effective mitigation and adaptation and can help to orient practices in agriculture and in forestry towards global sharing of innovative technologies for the efficient use of land resources. Different policy instruments, especially economic incentives and regulatory approaches, are currently being applied however, for its successful implementation it is critical to understand how land‐use decisions are made and how new social, political and economic forces in the future will influence this process.     

Climate change increases risk of fusarium ear blight on wheat in central China

To estimate potential impact of climate change on wheat fusarium ear blight (FEB), simulated weather for the A1B climate change scenario was input into a model for estimating FEB in central China. In this article, a logistic weather‐based regression model for estimating incidence of wheat FEB in central China was developed, using up to 10 years (2001–2010) of disease, anthesis date and weather data available for 10 locations in Anhui and Hubei provinces. In the model, the weather variables were defined with respect to the anthesis date for each location in each year. The model suggested that incidence of FEB is related to number of days of rainfall in a 30‐day period after anthesis and that high temperatures before anthesis increase the incidence of disease. Validation was done to test whether this relationship was satisfied for another five locations in Anhui province with FEB data for 4–5 years but no nearby weather data, using simulated weather data obtained employing the regional climate modelling system PRECIS. How climate change may affect wheat anthesis date and FEB in central China was investigated for period 2020–2050 using wheat growth model Sirius and climate data simulated using PRECIS. The projection suggested that wheat anthesis dates will generally be earlier and FEB incidence will increase substantially for most locations.